Beating Bill Simmons: Week 11
Bill Simmons is one of the funniest writers on the web. He's also a new dad. Each week, he posts his NFL picks on Fridays. I figured I'd start posting mine as well. Call it the Battle of the WebDads. Or call it the Battle of the Famous and Respected Writer vs. Some Unknown Schmuck. Call it what you will.
Here are my picks (home team in CAPS, Bill's picks are in red):
Tampa Bay (+6) over ATLANTA
Big game for both teams: the loser drops to 6-4 and at least one game back in the division. Tampa Bay game up 144 yards to Clinton Portis last week. Vick, Dunn, and Duckett will easily get 200 yards. We'll see if Chris Simms is ready for primetime.
Pittsburgh (-3 1/2) over BALTIMORE
Pittsburgh is 7-2 and Baltimore is 2-7, but records don't matter when these two meet. Maddox will be starting for Pittsburgh. Baltimore will once again be without Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and any type of offense.
Carolina (-3) over CHICAGO
These two teams are a combined 13-5 and lead their respective divisions. Which, on paper, looks pretty good until you see that Chicago hasn't beaten a team with a winning record and Carolina has only beaten two (New England and Tampa Bay). Their victories have come against teams with a combined 31-59 record. This game will prove who's for real and who's just been the lucky recipient of an easy schedule. The Panthers are for real.
Miami (+2 1/2) over CLEVELAND
With Sage Rosenfels under center, the game will be much closer. If Frerotte plays, Miami in a cakewalk.
DALLAS (-7 1/2) over Detroit
Don't let Joey Harrington's performance last week fool you; Arizona can make anyone look good. Harrington, Roy Williams, and the rest of the Lions will come back to Earth this weekend.
NY Jets (+13 1/2) over DENVER
The Jets have lost their last four games by a combined 55 points. The only question in this game is who will have the bigger day rushing: Mike Anderson or Tatum Bell?
CINCINNATI (+5 1/2) over Indianapolis
Big statement game for both teams. Indianapolis is 9-0, but that is over teams with a combined 25-47 record. This game will be a high-scoring affair, with both Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer throwing for over 300 yards. Indy will win, but not cover.
Jacksonville (-4 1/2) over TENNESSEE
Like Green Bay, it's time for the Titans to start planning for the future with a new QB.
Kansas City (-7) at HOUSTON
Larry Johnson's final numbers? 27-230, 5 TD. Just a slight exaggeration.
New Orleans (+9) over NEW ENGLAND
I have a strange feeling New Orleans might win this game outright. New England needs to win this game to remain a game up on Buffalo in the mighty AFC East.
NY GIANTS (-7 1/2) over Philadelphia
No TO? No McNabb? No Chance.
Buffalo (+10 1/2) over SAN DIEGO
This is a must-win game for San Diego if they wish to keep their already faint playoff hopes alive. Tomlinson should have a field day.
Seattle (-12 1/2) over SAN FRANCISCO
Shaun Alexander will score three more touchdowns in his quest for the NFL MVP. Isn't it amazing how guys always have their best years when they're up for a new contract?
Arizona (+9 1/2) over ST LOUIS
Could you imagine Boldin and Fitzgerald on a team with an offensive line and a running game?
WASHINGTON (-6) over Oakland
This game could go either way, but I think Santana will outperform Randy.
Minnesota (+4 1/2) over GREEN BAY
Brett Favre has 4 TDs and 7 INTs in his last four games. Minnesota beat the Giants 24-21 last week despite only 137 yards of offense. You think ABC wishes they had Indy vs. Cincy instead?
Edited on 11.18 (Pittsburgh line is up).
DISCLAIMER: This is provided for entertainment purposes only. If you gamble on the NFL (especially this late in the season), you are a fool. Try college football instead. Moreover, if you follow my advice, you are an even bigger fool.
